Elderly Population: New Census Bureau Forecast
BY JOHN MCCORMICK, APRIL 25, 2005
Last Thursday the US Census Bureau released new state-by-state projections on the aging of the U.S. population which showed not only how it expects the nation to age, but how the population is expected to shift geographically over the next 25 years.
An excel spreadsheet prepared by the Census Bureau with the new projections can be found on the Bureau's website by clicking here.
Summary Table of Last Week's Census Projections
Some key summary points in the 2030 projections include:
- The elderly population will grow faster than the total population
- Growth in the 65-and-older population will outstrip population growth by a factor of 3.5
- Warmer states such as Nevada, Arizona, California, Florida, North Carolina and Texas will attract the elderly population and will to grow substantially
- Over half of the states in the U.S. will double their elderly populations by 2030
While such projections on aging support the thesis that the orthopedic medical device industry stands to grow substantially, questions arise about who will pay the bill to support the medical needs the aging population. In 2004, Medicare expenses exceeded revenues by nearly $3 billion - a first in the program's history and Medicare's expenses are projected to grow at nearly 7% per annum for the foreseeable future according to a recent actuarial report released by the federal government (OASDI Trustees report March 23/2005). 7% is substantially greater than GDP growth (ergo tax revenue growth) which means Medicare's annual expense growth is inherently unsustainable.
Who says Social Security is the only crisis we are facing? While the aging of the population may give the elderly and even certain states more political clout, the math doesn't work and increased Medicare expenses will simply have to be curtailed if taxes are not raised.
