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Novel Products to Rejuvenate Hip Market Growth BY JOHN CHOPACK, SEPTEMBER 21, 2005

The rate of growth in the hip market has been somewhat lackluster since the 2Q:04. That quarter marked the first two FDA approvals for ceramic-on-ceramic hips for Stryker and Wright Medical. For the 12 months prior to the 2Q:04, Stryker and Wright Medical experienced exceptional rates of growth for their hip revenues - approximately 40% and 30%, respectively. But since the 2Q:04 the overall rate of growth of the hip market has slowed significantly.

Rate of Growth of Hip Revenues (constant currency)
  DePuy Stryker Zimmer Smith & Nephew Biomet
2Q:04 10% 9% 11% 14% 10%
3Q:04 10% 8% 10% 15% 11%
4Q:04 13% 5% 7% 14% 6%
1Q:05 15% 6% 3% 12% 8%
2Q:05 12% 5% 7% 16% 7%


As the table demonstrates, growth in hip revenues has fallen for most of the hip market share leaders. But we believe this will change in 2006.

The recent approval of Smith & Nephew's hip resurfacing device as well as the anticipated approvals of both Wright Medical's device and Corin's prosthesis (to be marketed in the U.S. by Stryker) should help jump start the hip market. Couple this with the recent FDA approval of DePuy's and Biomet's ceramic-on-ceramic hips, and one can see why we foresee a rejuvenation of the growth in the hip market during 2006. All these products treat younger patients who have had a tendency to go untreated until they are older. Therefore, these devices are expanding the market.

Although there are many factors to consider, including hospital pricing pressure, we think the current 9-10% rate of growth of hip revenue could be accelerated by 200 or 300 basis points to 11 or 13%.

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