Another Take on Forecasting the Orthopedic Market
BY DAVID KRESSEL, MARCH 29, 2006
At AAOS last week, representatives of Exponent Inc., an engineering and scientific consulting firm, presented a study forecasting growth in the orthopedic market. Whereas our market forecast focused on revenue over the next few years, this study looks at unit growth in the market through 2030.
Their predictions:
Knees: The number of procedures for primary total knee replacement would jump by 673 percent--to 3.48 million--in 2030. This implies an 8% CAGR for the next 24 years. Revisions will grow at the same rate.
Hips: The number of procedures for primary total hip replacements will increase by 174 percent--to 572,000--in 2030. This implies a 2.3% CAGR for the next 24 years. Revisions are expected to grow slightly faster, at a 3.5% CAGR.
The study concludes that this growth in demand calls for the training of more orthopedic surgeons and improvements in device longevity to reduce the overall costs of these implants.
The HealthpointCapital global forecasts for knees and hips call for higher growth through the end of the decade but we do not have estimates beyond 2010, which probably explains the discrepancy. The Exponent forecast is based on US and Canadian procedure volumes in 1999 through 2003, plus US Census Bureau population projections.
