Stem Cells are Here and Now
BY JOHN MCCORMICK, FEBRUARY 29, 2008
This week we attended Robin Young's packed-to-the-gills Stem Cell Summit in New York along with many of the industry's leading scientists and executives. The takeaway was loud and clear: the path to commercialization of this technology is happening faster than anyone could have expected.
With nearly 40 companies presenting their technologies at the meeting and well over 100 listed in the RRY Publications binder, it was clear that clinical and commercial adoption of stem cell technology is moving forward with real momentum. A few years ago companies were presenting lab tests and animal tests. This year there was more human data and the ultimate test… revenues from stem cell products.
What about the clinical advances in technologies described at the meeting being confounded by underperforming public stem cell company equities? There is an argument that the technology will have the last laugh. If the $8 billion revenue forecasts presented at the meeting have merit (and we think they do), then stem cells stand to be scientific and commercial bonanza. We won’t nitpick the $8 billion number, because this is not a question of “if” such revenue potential is achievable, but “when”. If it does not happen in 2017 as suggested at the meeting, we may well be there in 2020.
One way to look at it is the potential for stem cells to disintermediate areas of pharma and/or medical devices. Those are two big industries with a combined aggregate public market capitalization well in excess of $1 trillion. By comparison, aggregate public market capitalization of stem cells at the end of 2007 was a mere $1.9 billion.
How is it possible that stem cell technologies could be moving ahead so quickly? There are two straightforward answers.
The first is the very nature of stem cells themselves. Stem cells have the remarkable potential to differentiate into a variety of tissues and thus have the potential of addressing the widest possible range of pathologies including stroke, cartilage repair, disc nucleus degeneration, damaged heart muscle, trauma and many other aspects of the anatomy. Each of these are substantial clinical needs and therefore big potential markets for stem cells use.
The second is the wide variety of stem cell extraction methods. A range of technologies is available to obtain stem cells without having to get into the ethical issues associated with embryonic stem cells. Among them are extraction from bone marrow, umbilical cord blood, adipose (fat) tissues, genetic engineering and the like. There is even a wide variety of sources including autologous (derived from patient), allogenic (deceased donor) and cultures from living donors.
The potential of this industry is virtually limitless. The nagging question the Summit left us with was who among multitude of companies coming from all corners of the earth will win? Who will even survive as entrants, including the inevitable corporate behemoths, clamber to get a piece of this opportunity? If history is any guide, in the long run the best clinical outcomes will determine the winners and losers.
For our readers wanting to get a better grip on the science of stem cells we recommend this series of lectures from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. The series on DVD can be ordered online here or downloaded as a series of podcasts from iTunes by searching for "HHMI".
